A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
